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AXIS 1 - CONQUESTS, POWER ASSERTIONS AND RIVALRIES

• 1950s: space conquest/ocean mastery = geopolitical and economic rivalry between the United States and the USSR
• The two superpowers engaged in a space race
• Adj: deployment of naval bases on all continents and use of the navy as a surveillance/dissuasion force shows that oceans = major places of geopolitical rivalries

I - The geopolitical stakes of space conquest

A/ the space race in the 1950s-60s

the origins: Antiquity to the 19th century: a dream out of reach due to lack of means/knowledge, found only in legends

WWII: Germany reaches the point of developing the first modern rocket, 1937 launching a long-range missile development program, 1942 first launch of a V2 rocket

towards the Cold War: allies racing to recover German plans, materials..., only military stakes + missiles for maintaining nuclear deterrence, both superpowers strive to prove their superiority

USSR: first to put satellites in orbit, first man sent but USA: with Apollo program, Americans sent to the Moon thus USA > USSR

B/ New state actors since 1970: established powers face emerging powers

USA = first space power with NASA having a budget of 21.5 billion dollars, USA views space as a major stake for their national security/defense therefore launching "the Space Force"

Europe = tries to keep pace with ESA created in 2015 + European satellite positioning system aiming to compete with American GPS (France = 3rd largest space power in the world)

Emerging states = India has its own launchers + developing landing project, China aims for manned flight to the moon by 2025, other developing countries are also candidates

Russia = leading space power with the 4th largest budget worldwide

+ international law with the Outer Space Treaty signed in 1967 = non-militarization of the Moon and prohibition of orbiting nuclear weapons

C/ space today: a field of private conquest?

French company Ariane Space rents its services but faces competition from New Space

New Space emerged in the USA = space industry resulting in the privatization of access to space and the arrival of prominent corporate actors

Objective of New Space = new uses and services creating tensions with states dominating the space sector

New Space actors = private companies from the digital world emerging in the 2000s (Elon Musk with his company SpaceX) + to affirm their space power: these companies rely on their financial strength, mastery of new technologies

II - Affirming power from the seas and oceans

A/ forms of maritime projection: hierarchy of powers

USA = masters of the seas, present on all oceans, the only global maritime power, 1st naval force with 12 aircraft carriers

+ American naval strategy has shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific, USA controls the seas = SEA POWER

French Navy and the Royal Navy = other global maritime powers with aircraft carriers, SSBNs... + global projection capability with bases overseas

Emerging countries' navies are developing, 18 countries possessing submarines and adj there are 42 + Russia and China reaffirm their power but power is not solely measured by the number of navies (also develops projection force, capital ships: aircraft carriers+SSNs)

B/ Oceans and nuclear deterrence

Oceans = strategic space for nuclear deterrence (each state with nuclear capabilities imposes on its adversaries the possibility of suffering considerable damage in case of an attack)

based on indetectable SSBNs where a missile launch can strike a state from the seas

3 pillars of deterrence = capacity to retaliate, inflict unacceptable damage, strike a geographically distant adversary, 1st test of a sea/land launch in 1960, French SSBN "Le Terible" commissioned with a range of at least 8000 km

main nuclear powers = USA, Russia, China and their stakes = renewing their SSBNs, developing innovative programs

C/ The Arctic and the Mediterranean: strategic maritime spaces marked by rivalries

space is being militarized with military bases (Arctic Ocean) and Russia = dominates with five major military bases, Norway in reaction develops a winter war program to compete with Russia, various states' desire to control the Arctic Ocean due to: potential resources of hydrocarbons + new maritime routes

AXIS 2 - DIPLOMATIC ISSUES AND COOPERATION

• regarding oceanic and spatial resources (either new actors seek to appropriate them or they act for their preservation) = geopolitical rivalry therefore states cooperate to establish common rules

I - Spaces and international scientific cooperation

A/ during the Cold War: regulating space conquest

1967 the Outer Space Treaty is signed (USA, USSR), a treaty that belongs to no one so belongs to everyone, no weapons and limited resources for scientists

another treaty signed: the Moon Treaty which affirms that celestial objects are a common heritage

space circulation is free and open to all and in 1968: UN agreement regulates astronaut rescue and satellites overfly all territories (if there is damage => responsibility of the state)

B/ the ISS: a symbol of international scientific cooperation

1) the ISS, a reflection of multilateralism (built and funded by 16 countries and 5 space agencies)

• first station projects: with the American Skylab but which disintegrates then Soviets created the Mir station
• late 80s: US proposes to their allies to cooperate in developing an international space station (ISS) then later Russia joins the American project
• 1998: inaugural launch placing a Russian module in orbit, ISS fully operational in 2010
• it is the most advanced example of space cooperation but reflects global geopolitics (USA as the primary funder, significant presence of Russia, American astronauts the most numerous)

2) the limits of special scientific cooperation: the ISS, a theater of power rivalries

• Rivalry between USA and China + Russo-Ukrainian war could end US/Russia collaboration thus the end of the ISS
• USA encourages companies to invest in the space sector = potential profits with the aim that private actors fund space exploration instead of states + ISS funding ends by 2025 (=fragilization of cooperation)
• cooperation does not manage to stop the multiplication of space debris, the issue of space militarization weakens international cooperation, states wish to retain control over sensitive data, strategic information
• HOWEVER climate change could drive the relaunch of space cooperation

II - International management of seas/oceans

A/ the sharing of oceans and their resources

19th century: development of fishing and hydrocarbon extraction therefore the question arises about the appropriation of the high seas

1924: the League of Nations attempts to codify the law of the sea

after WWII: territorialization of maritime spaces accelerates, Truman proclaims the exclusive sovereignty of the USA over all marine resources off their coasts and later Chile, Ecuador, Peru do the same

UN then promotes international cooperation on the law of the sea (end of the 1950s) to try to establish equal maritime law: Geneva conference in 1958 = first legal codification

Subsequent years: developing countries challenge rules set in Geneva thus UN convenes a new conference in 1982 resulting in the signature of UNCLOS in Montego Bay

UNCLOS = establishes the framework for ocean governance, in case of problems: international tribunal for the law of the sea

B/ rivalries in resource sharing

Causes of rivalries: space hosts many natural resources (gas, oil, fisheries)

Conflicts related to hydrocarbon resources: tension in the South China Sea, China requests an extension of its EEZ

Tensions over the appropriation of fisheries resources (EU vs Norway over sharing North Atlantic herring stocks) or over maritime enclavement (Bolivia long demanded that Chile grant it access to the ocean)

Summary of maritime conflicts: border disputes over oceans, mainly concerning EEZ boundaries, decided by the international tribunal for the law of the sea, when the ITLOS fails to resolve the conflict => international court of justice at The Hague

C/ cooperating to preserve seas and oceans

Climate change/human activities = need for international cooperation as a threat to marine biodiversity (plastic soup in oceans), marine areas are protected through international cooperation which also delineates protected marine areas (Arctic Council to combat pollution), a global legal framework has been established: annual BBNJ session aimed at creating a binding and international framework for conservation and sustainable exploitation of oceans BUT the law of the sea is still under construction with difficulties (disagreement between developed/developing countries)