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AXIS 1- CONQUEST, ASSERTIONS OF POWER AND RIVALRIES

• 1950s: space conquest/ocean mastery = geopolitical and economic rivalry between the United States and the USSR
• The two powers engage in a race for space
• Adj: deployment of naval bases on all continents and use of the navy as a surveillance/deterrence force shows that oceans = major places of geopolitical rivalries

I-Geopolitical stakes of space conquest

A/ Space race in the 1950s-60s

Origins: Antiquity to the 19th century: an unattainable dream due to lack of means/knowledge, only in legends

WWII: Germany develops the first modern rocket, in 1937 it launches a program to develop a long-range missile, in 1942 it launches the first V2 rocket

Towards the Cold War: Allies compete to recover plans, German materials…, only military stakes + missile to maintain nuclear deterrence, the two superpowers seek to prove their superiority

USSR: first to put satellites in orbit, first man sent but USA: with the Apollo program, Americans sent to the Moon so USA>USSR

B/ New state actors since 1970: established powers vs. emerging powers

USA= the first space power with NASA having 21.5 billion dollars, USA considers space a major issue for their national security/defense so launching "Space Force"

Europe= trying to keep up with ESA created in 2015 + European satellite positioning system that wants to compete with the American GPS (France= 3rd world space power)

Emerging states= India has its own launchers + develops lunar project, China aims to have manned flight to the moon by 2025, other developing countries are also candidates

Russia= major space power with the 4th world budget

+ international law with the Outer Space Treaty signed in 1967 = non-militarization of the moon and prohibition of placing nuclear weapons in orbit

C/ Space today: a private conquest ground?

French company Ariane Space leases its services but faces competition from New Space

New Space born in the USA = space industry that results in the privatization of access to space and the arrival of major corporate players

Objective of New Space = new uses and new services that create tensions with the dominant state in the space sector

Actors of New Space = private companies from the digital world that emerged in the 2000s (Elon Musk with his company Space X) + to assert their space power: companies rely on their financial strength, mastery of new technologies

II-Affirming power from the seas and oceans

A/ Forms of maritime projection: hierarchy of powers

USA= master of the seas, present on all oceans, the only global maritime power, the first naval force with 12 aircraft carriers

+ American naval strategy has shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific, USA control the seas = SEA POWER

French Navy and Royal Navy = other global maritime powers with aircraft carriers, SSBNs... + global projection capability with overseas bases

Navies of emerging countries are developing, 18 countries had submarines and now there are 42 + Russia and China reaffirm their power but power is not only measured by the number of navies (also develop projection force, strategic assets: aircraft carriers+SSN)

B/ Oceans and nuclear deterrence

Oceans = strategic space for nuclear deterrence (each state with nuclear capability imposes the possibility of inflicting considerable damage in case of attack on its adversaries)

relies on undetectable SSBNs, a single missile launch from the seas can hit a state

3 pillars of ND = ability to replicate, to inflict unacceptable damage, to strike a geographically distant adversary, first sea/ground launch test in 1960, French SSBN "Le Terrible" commissioned with a range of at least 8000 km

major nuclear powers = USA, Russia, China and their challenge= renew their SSBNs, develop innovative programs

C/ The Arctic and the Mediterranean: strategic maritime spaces marked by rivalries

area being militarized with military bases (Arctic Ocean) and Russia = dominates with five major military bases, in reaction Norway will develop winter warfare program to compete with Russia, many states want to control the Arctic Ocean because: potential hydrocarbon resources + new maritime routes

AXIS 2- DIPLOMATIC ISSUES AND COOPERATION

• about oceanic and space resources (either new actors seek to appropriate them or they act for their preservation) = geopolitical rivalry, so states cooperate to establish common rules

I-Spaces and international scientific cooperation

A/ During the Cold War: regulating space conquest

1967 Outer Space Treaty signed (USA, UK, USSR), treaty that does not belong to anyone, not about weapons and limited resources for scientists

another treaty signed: the Moon Treaty which states that celestial objects are a common heritage

circulation in space is free and open to all and in 1968: UN agreement regulates the rescue of astronauts and satellites fly over all territories (if there is damage=> responsibility of the State)

B/ ISS: symbol of international scientific cooperation

1) ISS, reflection of multilateralism (built and financed by 16 countries and 5 space agencies)

• first station projects: with the American Skylab but it disintegrates then Soviets create the Mir station
• late 80s: US proposes to their allies to cooperate to develop an International Space Station (ISS) and later Russia joins the American project
• 1998: inaugural launch putting a Russian module into orbit, ISS fully operational in 2010
• it is the most successful example of space cooperation but reflects world geopolitics (USA as the main funder, significant presence of Russia, the largest number of American astronauts)

2) the limits of specific scientific cooperation: ISS, theater of power rivalries

• Rivalry between USA and China + Russo-Ukrainian war that could end US/Russia collaboration therefore end of ISS
• USA encourages companies to invest in the space industry = potential profits with the goal that private actors finance space exploration instead of states + end of ISS funding by 2025 (=weakening of cooperation)
• cooperation fails to stop the multiplication of space debris, the issue of space militarization undermines international cooperation, states want to retain control of sensitive data, strategic information
• BUT climate change can be the motivation for space cooperation revival

II-International Management of Seas/Oceans

A/ Sharing the oceans and their resources

19th century: development of fishing and exploitation of hydrocarbons so the question of appropriating the high seas arises

1924: the League of Nations attempts to codify maritime law

after WWII: the territorialization of maritime spaces accelerates, Truman proclaims exclusive sovereignty of the USA over all maritime resources off its coasts, later Chile, Ecuador, Peru also do the same

UN then initiates international cooperation on maritime law (late 1950s) to try to establish equal maritime rights: 1958 Geneva Conference = first legal codification

Following years: developing countries challenge the rules set in Geneva so the UN convenes a new conference in 1982, signing of UNCLOS in Montego Bay

UNCLOS= establishes the framework for ocean governance, if there are issues: International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea

B/ Rivalries in resource sharing

Causes of rivalries: space that houses numerous natural resources (gas, oil, fishery resources)

Conflicts related to hydrocarbon resources: tension in the South China Sea, China claims extension of its EEZ

Tensions over the appropriation of fishery resources (EU vs. Norway on the sharing of the North Atlantic herring stock) or on maritime enclavement (Bolivia has long demanded that Chile grant it access to the ocean)

Assessment of maritime conflicts: border disputes on the oceans, mainly concerning the limits of EEZs, judged by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, when ITLOS fails to resolve the conflict => International Court of Justice in The Hague

C/ Cooperating to preserve the seas and oceans

Climate change/human activities= need for international cooperation because of the threat to marine biodiversity (plastic debris in the oceans), some marine areas are protected thanks to international cooperation that also delimits protected marine areas (Arctic Council to fight pollution), a global legal framework has been established: annual sessions of the BBNJ aiming to create a binding and international framework for the conservation and sustainable use of the oceans BUT the law of the sea is still under construction with difficulties (disagreements between developed/developing countries)